UFC Fight Night 196 predictions: Marvin Vettori or Paulo Costa in 205-pound main event?

The UFC stays home in Las Vegas this week with a key middleweight matchup atop the card – thought it won’t be at that weight class.

UFC Fight Night 196 takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The card streams on ESPN+.

(Click here to open a PDF of the staff picks grid in a separate window.)

In the main event, Paulo Costa (13-1 MMA, 5-1 UFC) takes on Marvin Vettori (17-4-1 MMA, 7-3-1 UFC) in a fight between the most recent two middleweight title challengers. They both lost to champion Israel Adesanya. But this fight won’t be at middleweight thanks to Costa’s failure to make weight. They’ll fight at 205 pounds after Costa came into fight week heavy and intially asked for a catchweight. Vettori is a -185 favorite at Tipico; the comeback on Costa is +140. Our 13 editors, writers, radio hosts and videographers have Vettori with a 9-4 picks lead.

In the co-feature, Grant Dawson (17-1 MMA, 5-0 UFC) is the biggest favorite on the card at -420 in his lightweight fight against Ricky Glenn (22-6-1 MMA, 4-3 UFC). He’s a near-unanimous pick from our staff members at 12-1.

Also on the main card, Jessica-Rose Clark (10-6 MMA, 3-2 UFC) takes on Joselyne Edwards (10-3 MMA, 1-1 UFC) in a women’s bantamweight bout. Clark is a -160 favorite, and she’s got a sizable 9-4 picks lead.

Alex Caceres (18-12 MMA, 13-10 UFC) meets Seungwoo Choi (10-3 MMA, 3-2 UFC) in a featherweight bout. Choi nearly is a 3-1 favorite, and he’s up big in the picks at 9-4.

It’s a close fight at the betting window between welterweights Dwight Grant (11-3 MMA, 3-2 UFC) and Francisco Trinaldo (26-8 MMA, 16-7 UFC). Trinaldo is just a -135 favorite, but he’s got a big 10-3 edge in the picks.

And to open the main card, Nicolae Negumereanu (10-1 MMA, 1-1 UFC) is a -230 favorite at light heavyweight against Ike Villanueva (18-12 MMA, 1-3 UFC). He’s a near-unanimous pick at 12-1 from our staff members.

In the MMA Junkie reader consensus picks, Costa (57 percent), Dawson (87 percent), Clark (75 percent), Choic (50.1 percent), Trinaldo (63 percent) and Negumereanu (77 percent) are the choices.

Check out all the picks above.

Original article: https://mmajunkie.usatoday.com/2021/10/ufc-fight-night-196-predictions-picks-marvin-vettori-vs-paulo-costa

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